Free Download The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives
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The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives
Free Download The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives
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The rise and fall of your favorite movie star or the most reviled CEO - in fact, all our destinies - reflects chance as much as planning and innate abilities. Even Roger Maris, who beat Babe Ruth's single season home-run record, was in all likelihood not great but just lucky.
How could it have happened that a wine was given five out of five stars by one journal and called the worst wine of the decade by another? Wine ratings, school grades, political polls, and many other things in daily life are less reliable than we believe. By showing us the true nature of chance and revealing the psychological illusions that cause us to misjudge the world around us, Mlodinow gives fresh insight into what is really meaningful and how we can make decisions based on a deeper truth. From the classroom to the courtroom, from financial markets to supermarkets, from the doctor's office to the Oval Office, Mlodinow's insights will intrigue, awe, and inspire.
Offering listeners not only a tour of randomness, chance and probability but also a new way of looking at the world, this original, unexpected journey reminds us that much in our lives is about as predictable as the steps of a stumbling man afresh from a night at a bar.
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Audible Audiobook
Listening Length: 9 hours and 19 minutes
Program Type: Audiobook
Version: Unabridged
Publisher: Gildan Media, LLC
Audible.com Release Date: June 26, 2008
Whispersync for Voice: Ready
Language: English, English
ASIN: B001BSJHRC
Amazon Best Sellers Rank:
Math, history, and psychology all wrapped up in an often funny, and consistently well written 220 pages. It definitely falls into the page-turner category, and while there is some math, even the math phobic likely will enjoy it. Ironically, while the book focuses on the impact of randomness in world events and our personal lives, it is very well organized. Yet there is no reason why you shouldn't read the chapters in random order. Sure, there is some carryover from one chapter to the next, but if you read the last chapter first, Â you might find yourself even more enlightened.I found chapter 9 to be particularly enlightening. Randomness is clearly a part of our lives and often is the source of major world events and trends. Most of us know this, Â but as the author points out, we try to organize random events so that they make sense and point to a direction. He uses examples of the stock market and the success/failure of new movies and books. There are countless people making a nice living trying to convince us that they see a pattern when in fact there is none. There are many more "hmmph, I didn't know that" points in the book, but If this is your only learning, Â it is a worthwhile use of your time and money.
The book is an historical account of the development of two branchs of mathematics: probabilities and statistics. It is very comprehensive, covering a wide range of the subject in details. However, it is not a technical book. The author try to address explain the mathematics using simple examples in a narrative form. Being an engineer, I would like to say that probabilities and statistics are not easy subjects. As the author points throughout the book, part of the difficult is due to the fact that both sciences usually produce results that are very counterintuitive. The type of conclusions that clash directly to our expectations. The author did its best to try to address such complexity. But, it still is a difficult book. So, I recommend reading it with time and patience. But, at the end, it is a worth reading, in particular for anyone interested in history of science.
Although it’s seemingly impossible to discuss this book without drawing parallels to Fooled By Randomness, these books provide a great compliment to each other. This book in particular differs in its scope, traversing many areas outside of finance. It also speaks more directly to the reader, explaining the mathematics of probability by breaking down the mathematics (in contrast to Taleb who speaks more through analogies and metaphors).The writer explains concepts clearly, and explores the role (and misunderstandings of) probably in Hollywood, the board room, the courts, and why the Greek's, despite their immense mathematical contributions had no understanding – and a great skepticism of – probability.This book contains just the right balance of history, philosophy, mathematics, popular culture (Monty Hall problem, etc), and it’s accessible to all. If you’re on the fence about it, look at the Table of Contents for some inspiration.
“If you want to succeed, double your failure. Even a coin weighted toward failure will sometimes land on successâ€. The Drunkard’s Walk by Leonard Mlodinow illustrates the role of randomness in our lives. Randomness is one of the most dependable forces at work around us. This book was captivating from the perspective of a psychology major, but anyone with a basic knowledge of mathematics and probability would benefit from picking up this book. It doesn’t focus on explaining one event, but rather examines wide spread models of randomness’ reach. Our mistakes in logic have impacts from the court system to college football. Mlodinow explains the impact of randomness for the most wealthy to the most impoverished, and reminds us of our biases towards the two. General psychology teaches us that we all look for patterns to understand the randomness in our lives. This book expands on the principle of heuristics, and advises us to appreciate the randomness that affects us positively rather than negatively. The Drunkard's Walk meshes with our knowledge of Skinner’s pigeons and rats by explaining how our predictable mental processes can so easily fail us.Leonard Mlodinow explores the predictability of randomness and its impact on the movie industry, college football, and so much more. Success operates on a continuum and regression towards the mean calls for periods of both extreme failure and success. Mlodinow tells us that our inability to understand this continuum results in college coaches fired for less successful seasons and famous movie producers given the boot when their good luck suddenly runs dry. It was discovered later on that first-in-commands have little to do with the success of their respective fields. Our biases and misconceptions can rule our lives unless we account for them. This book address questions like: how can something so obvious be wrong? Mlodinow explains how our misinterpretation of probabilities have greatly tainted our legal system. Simple mathematical mistakes are “enough to sober up anyone drunk on feelings of cultural superiorityâ€. These mistakes are enough to bring ‘beyond reasonable doubt’ back into question. OJ Simpson’s trial and the Pearl Harbor attacks are re-calculated to show how previous mistakes in logic can seem so obvious in reverse. The clever selection of gripping anecdotes will keep me coming back to this book. Mlodinow proves that it’s possible to win the lottery if we gather enough people together to outsmart the system. He uncovers why the most wealthy people in the world are no smarter than you and me, and he does it with great wit and humor. Overall, he urges us to judge each other by our qualities, and not the results we obtain. This book opened my eyes to the randomness working in my life and all around me. Are my most successful moments pure serendipity? Mlodinow succeeds in taking the ancient logic of philosophers and basic knowledge in mathematics and uses it to disprove most everything I trusted to be grounded in strong rationale. From social physics to prosecutor's fallacy, it’s hard to see anything the way I used to.
You may guess that this book is about drunk people walking. Wrong. Drunk people are more likely to let the universe control their bodies. As you may know, the result is random (sort of). Thus the other way around is also true: the whole universe is drunk all the time! Damn, this even explains quantum mechanics? Sure. But this book is about the effects of a drunk universe in our ordinary lives. The bad news is: you don't need a drink to see randomness everywhere.
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